Going on Statin’s? Take a New Look at the Size of the Benefit
The current practice of advising healthy adults to go on prolonged drug therapy just got a big boost from a large international trial. It found that people with normal cholesterol can halve their risk for heart attack and stroke by taking the cholesterol-lowering statin drug Crestor (generic name: rosuvastatin). Although at low risk for heart disease, all the participants had high blood levels of C-reactive protein, or CRP, which indicates the presence of inflammation within the artery walls.
This trial, which is expected to greatly expand the market for Crestor, was funded by its maker, AstraZeneca. And it is the brainchild of the lead author Paul M. Ridker, MD, who co-owns the patent on the CRP test. The 17,802 participants—men 50 or older and women 60 or older—were randomly assigned to take either 20 mg Crestor or a placebo each day. Results were so definitively in favor of Crestor that the trial was stopped three years ahead of its five-year schedule. Millions more healthy Americans are now candidates for Crestor, and there is talk of including a CRP screening with the routine blood test for cholesterol.
The findings from this trial called JUPITER were first presented early last month at a meeting of the American Heart Association. The next day, they became freely accessible at the Web site of The New England Journal of Medicine days before the intended publication date—a move that signals the importance of new trial results.
Crestor’s 50% reduction in cardiac events was widely reported in the media, but few reporters explained that this statistic is actually far more modest than meets the eye. JUPITER’s finding is, in fact, no different from the results of other trials designed to test whether a drug can prevent a disease in healthy people—only a tiny minority will benefit from years of drug therapy.
If the small chance of benefit is important to you, so too is this critical look at JUPITER.
50% reduction explained:
JUPITER defined cardiac events as heart attack, stroke or confirmed death from cardiovascular causes. According to the editorial that accompanied JUPITER, at least one of these cardiac events occurred in 1.8% of the participants in the placebo group (157 of 8,901 participants) and 0.9% of those taking Crestor (83 of the 8901 participants). In short, over the nearly two-year duration of the trial, few of these low-risk people had a cardiac event whether they were taking Crestor or not. To single out cardiovascular deaths, there were 37 deaths in those taking placebos and 31 deaths in those on Crestor.
What it means to you:
If you fit the profile of the people who participated in JUPITER, your chance of benefiting from Crestor is also explained in the editorial that accompanied JUPITER: For every 120 people who take Crestor for nearly two years, one cardiac event will be avoided. Or, put another way: Out of every 120 people who take Crestor, 119 will receive no benefit.
Profile of the participants:
JUPITER excluded people with diabetes, high LDL cholesterol, uncontrolled hypertension, cancer diagnosed in the past five years, or inflammatory ailments, such as severe arthritis, lupus or inflammatory bowel disease—among other conditions too numerous to mention in this space.
Stopping JUPITER early:
All major trials have a Data and Safety Monitoring Board. For ethical reasons, JUPITER’s DSMB stopped the trial as a majority of participants neared the two-year mark when those on the placebo had nearly 1% more cardiac events than those on Crestor. The early stopping of trials, an increasingly common practice, has been criticized by researchers and consumer groups. It favors the drug company’s interest since more adverse effects are likely to be reported if the trial is allowed to continue. On the other hand, the benefit may also increase. Some of the JUPITER participants were tracked for nearly five years. The difference in favor of Crestor continued a steady increase as these participants neared the five-year point.
Adverse events:
There was a small increase in the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in people taking Crestor. This increase comes close to the nearly1% benefit shown for Crestor. Newly diagnosed diabetes was reported in 3.0% of people on Crestor and 2.4% of people on placebos. The rate of any serious adverse event was the same whether participants were taking Crestor or a placebo. However, JUPITER followed participants for a median of 1.9 years, and people take statins for the rest of their lives.
Other long-term statin info:
Since 1995, nine primary prevention trials, comparing a statin drug with a placebo, have been published. They followed participants for about five years. Although all the trials collected serious adverse events, all have failed to make the complete data available to researchers. Thus, the safety of statins is unknown.
Interesting statistic:
25% of the participants in JUPITER who were assigned to take Crestor had stopped taking the drug when the trial was stopped at 1.9 years.
Noteworthy aspects of JUPITER:
This is the first trial to have a representative proportion of female, Hispanic, and African-American participants. Findings were separated out according to subgroups which showed that the reductions in cardiac events were roughly the same for all—50%.
Noteworthy previous research:
JUPITER is not the first trial to show that a statin drug can benefit people with no history of heart disease or high LDL cholesterol. Other statins—e.g., lovastatin (Mevacor), pravastatin (Pravachol)—produced similar, though slightly smaller, reductions in cardiac events. These studies, which date back to 1999, provided the first hints that the benefit of statins may be unrelated to their cholesterol-lowering effect (they are far better at lowering cholesterol than they are at lowering the risk for stroke, heart attack and death).
Cost:
Crestor is still under patent and is therefore not available generically. A month’s supply of Crestor is $105. The cost of statins, including generic versions, can vary considerably, according to Consumer Reports. A month’s supply of another statin, sold generically as simvastatin, can cost $30 at some retail pharmacies and as little as $6 at Costco.
Inflammation and heart disease:
The role of CRP and inflammation in heart disease is hotly debated, according to The New York Times, which quoted Paul M. Ridker, MD, the lead author of JUPITER, saying that he believes inflammation plays an important role, probably by causing plaque in the arteries to rupture. Dr. Ridker went on to say, “Screening for cholesterol alone is like having two passengers in a car but only one air bag. If we’re not screening for CRP, we don’t have the opportunity to save that person’s life.” Dr. Ridker, a cardiologist at Harvard Medical School, co-owns the patent on the test that measures CRP. He is expected to earn millions of dollars once it becomes part of the routine blood test for all adults.
Other conflicts of interests:
Dr. Ridker and most of his 13 JUPITER co-authors have received grants, lecture and consulting fees, and other funding from AstraZeneca and other drug companies, many of which make statin drugs. The list at the end of the JUPITER paper in The New England Journal of Medicine was so extensive that it took up six inches of tiny type.
Should you be tested?
Some say JUPITER calls into question the prevailing hypothesis that high cholesterol is a major risk factor for heart disease. This position is bolstered by the long-known, but oft-forgotten, fact that half of all heart attacks occur in people with normal cholesterol levels. Many assume that CRP testing will soon become routine.
In one of their excellent podcasts recorded at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, (www.ti.ubc.ca), James McCormack, Pharm.D, and Michael Allan, MD, dismissed the obsession among some researchers who are trying to tease out whether statins work by lowering cholesterol, or reducing inflammation or some other mechanism. McCormack and Allan say that statins clearly reduce the risk for cardiac events, and this was shown to be 1% in low-risk people like the JUPITER participants. Other trials show the benefit is higher in high-risk people, e.g., the 2% benefit for those who have had a heart attack or stroke. If these benefit rates sound good to you, say McCormack and Allan, then just take the statin and forget about having your CRP or cholesterol measured—they add nothing to the decision.
For more information:
To read the JUPITER trial findings, click here.
Added April 2011: See this relatively new, doctor-authored website for the modest effectiveness of statins click here.
Maryann Napoli, Center for Medical Consumers ©
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